Quebec Real Estate Pulse — Friday, March 13, 2026
At a glance: Quebec's housing market continues its moderation phase — sales are slipping, but prices keep climbing due to persistently low inventory. The Bank of Canada's next rate decision on March 18 is top of mind, while tariff uncertainty clouds the construction outlook. In Montreal, condo supply is surging, shifting the balance toward buyers.
Here are some important points on the real estate market for this first part of 2026:
📰 MORTGAGE RATES — Holding steady ahead of March 18 decision
The Bank of Canada has held its key rate at 2.25% since January, following nine consecutive cuts in 2024-2025. The best 5-year fixed rates sit around 3.64%, with variable rates near 3.34%. Markets are pricing in virtually no movement for the upcoming announcement. BMO expects rates to hold all year, while Scotiabank sees a possible 50 basis point hike in the second half. For now, borrowers enjoy a rare window of predictability.
📰 MONTREAL MARKET — Sales down 3%, condo inventory surges
According to QPAREB, 3,930 transactions closed in Greater Montreal in February 2026, a 3% year-over-year decline. The standout figure: condo inventory jumped 20%, from 7,655 to 9,210 active listings. Fueled by a backlog of unsold new units, this shift is creating a more buyer-friendly market, especially on the Island of Montreal. Plexes remain the only segment showing growth (+1%).
📰 QUEBEC CITY — Historic shortage persists
In stark contrast to Montreal, the capital remains in a severe supply crunch. January sales fell 18% — not from weak demand, but from a lack of available properties. Prices continue to soar: +12% for single-family homes, +15% for condos. Royal LePage forecasts a 12% overall price increase for Quebec City in 2026, the highest in the country.
📰 TARIFFS — A looming threat to construction costs
The ongoing trade war with the United States could push construction costs up by roughly 4%, according to multiple analyses. Lumber, metals, and imported materials are directly affected. Project delays are also expected, further limiting new housing supply in an already tight market. A critical factor to watch in the months ahead.
📰 MORTGAGE RENEWALS — Payment shock continues
Approximately 1.15 million Canadians will renew their mortgage in 2026, according to CMHC. For those who locked in a 5-year fixed rate around 1.39% in 2020-2021, renewing near 3.94% means roughly $576 more per month. About 85% of renewing households now face higher payments. A major affordability challenge.
📊 Number of the Day
+20% — The year-over-year increase in condo inventory in Montreal as of February 2026. A strong signal that the Montreal condo market is rebalancing, potentially offering more opportunities for buyers this spring.
🎯 Key Takeaways
Two markets, two realities: Montreal's condo supply is swelling, while Quebec City remains locked in a historic shortage driving prices sharply higher.
Rates stable, but stay alert: The Bank of Canada's March 18 decision and tariff uncertainty could shift the outlook for the second half of the year.
The renewal wall: Hundreds of thousands of households face significant payment increases — a factor that could weigh on demand in the coming months.
Derek Baril, Commercial Mortgage Broker